Mevrometostat

摩根大通维持中性评级，历史最新目标价$30（现价$26.18，潜在空间约+15%）。核心逻辑：辉瑞肿瘤核心资产SV在2L+ NSCLC三期试验完成终点修改，由OS与PFS双主要终点改为OS单一终点，管理层定性良性，但开发后期调整方案本身已构成需要解释的信号；与此同时，默沙东TROP2数据在ASCO亮相，一线治疗格局加速演变，SV的长期市场定位悬而未决。Harmoni-6的强劲OS数据对辉瑞VEGFxPD1双特异性抗体构成正面类比，但全球可迁移性存在不确定性。 Padcev季度增速 +40% YoY Q1同比，mUC再加速 目标股价 $30 现价$26.18，空间约+15% 验证窗口 2H26 SV 2L+ Ph3 OS数据读出 非小细胞肺癌是辉瑞肿瘤管线未来两年最关键也最拥挤的战场，SV能否在这里立足，将在2026年下半年见分晓。摩根大通在ASCO后与辉瑞肿瘤管理层完成会面，维持中性评级，目标价$30对应现价约15%的账面空间，但评级本身已说明分析师认为风险收益还不够不对称。 让市场同时悬心的，是两件在同一个ASCO周末叠在一起的事：SV刚完成了一次开发后期的方案修改，而默沙东的TROP2数据正式亮相。 前者改变的是当前试验的可信度感知，后者改变的是SV未来需要竞争的市场地图。两件事加在一起，共识里隐含的SV峰值销售预期是否还撑得住，值得重新审视。 终点改了，公司说没事，但门槛实际上更高了 辉瑞上周宣布，SV在2L+ NSCLC三期试验的主要终点从OS与PFS双主要终点改为OS单一终点。管理层给出三点解释：这是公司主动提出的调整，非FDA要求；公司对数据保持盲态，事件目标尚未达到；改动不影响2H26的读出时间线。 解释在逻辑上成立。OS优于PFS作为监管终点，在非小细胞肺癌这类后续治疗选择复杂的适应症里，OS的临床意义更难被质疑，FDA也更认可以OS为核心的获批路径。Ph1单臂数据的疗效信号本身也相当有说服力。如果最终OS读出阳性，SV在2L+的地位将非常稳固。 但市场真正在问的问题是：为什么要在开发后期动终点？ 标准的三期设计通常在试验启动前就锁定主要终点，后期修改方案——即便来自申办方、即便公司确实保持盲态——也会被专业投资者标记为需要解释的事件。摩根大通的措辞是"does raise some questions"，在投行报告的语气体系里，这是非常清醒的保留态度，而不是随手写的套话。 信息差在这里：市场大多接受了管理层的良性定性，但一个被忽略的逻辑是，改为OS单一终点实际上抬高了通过门槛。原来的双终点设计等于两条路——PFS达标可以支撑加速审批，OS达标则是进一步确认。现在只有OS这一条。如果OS数据未达预设HR阈值，或者信号落在统计显著性边缘，很难找到别的补救锚点。2H26的读出窗口是一个单一赌注，而不是原来设计里的双保险。 风险触发条件明确：如果OS数据未能清晰达标，SV 2L+的推进节奏直接受阻，2027年1L试验的估值预期也将随之被系统性折价。最直接受损的是依赖SV贡献2028年后利润弹性的多头逻辑。 一线市场的门槛正在被默沙东抬高 SV在2L+的读出，对辉瑞而言不只是2L市场本身，更是进入一线战场的关键信号。2027年，SV联合Keytruda在PD-L1 50%以上患者群体中的1L试验将迎来读出。这个人群是非小细胞肺癌里相对精准的高表达子集，市场潜力相当可观。 问题是，这个子集同时也是竞争最激烈的地方。默沙东的sac-TMT数据在本届ASCO正式登场，TROP2靶向ADC在一线的格局正在成形。如果sac-TMT在PD-L1高表达人群里展示出强效，或者与PD-1的联合方案拿到显著生存数据，辉瑞需要证明SV+Keytruda的组合能在已有选择之上提供真正的增量。 一线治疗标准从来不是单一公司说了算——默沙东每拿出一个数据，SV需要证明的门槛就向上移动一格。 2027年读出时，患者已经能用到什么，决定了SV获批后实际能拿到的市场份额，而这个答案在今天仍然是开放的。 摩根大通用的是"increases uncertainty"，这比"竞争加剧"要微妙一点：不是说SV一定输，而是说最终落点的可见度在降低。市场共识里隐含的峰值销售数字，建立在一线竞争格局相对稳定的假设上，这个假设正在被更新。如果TROP2路径在一线站稳，SV可能从主攻选手变成二线补充，这两种情景对应的峰值销售可以差出一个数量级。 如果这个风险成立的触发条件是sac-TMT 1L数据在未来12个月持续强化，那么受损路径很清楚：2027年SV 1L读出前的预期会被压低，届时任何数据不足够强势，都将面临更苛刻的解读标准。 Harmoni-6是靶点层面的背书，落到辉瑞管线需要打折 这届ASCO有一个对辉瑞而言意外的正面信号。Harmoni-6是一项中国三期试验，评估Ivonescimab（VEGFxPD1双特异性抗体）联合化疗对比Tislelizumab联合化疗在1L鳞状非小细胞肺癌中的疗效，OS的HR达到0.66，优于市场预期的0.70-0.80区间。 辉瑞自己也有VEGFxPD1双特异性抗体在开发中，1L NSCLC主数据集的PDC是2029年2月。Harmoni-6的数据为这整个靶点类别的生物学逻辑做了背书——VEGFxPD1的双重阻断能在肿瘤微环境里协同发挥作用，不只是靶点叠加的简单相加。 但正面类比要成立，需要同时满足两个条件，而这两个条件目前都只是假设。 第一，Harmoni-6是中国患者数据，鳞癌亚组有其人群特殊性，全球非鳞亚组能否复现同等效应量，没有答案。第二，Ivonescimab和辉瑞的双抗是不同的分子，设计策略、给药方案和联合路径未必对应。正面类比成立的前提，是假设靶点机制在人群和分子层面有足够的一致性，这在生物制药开发里是可以合理质疑的假设。 短期内，Harmoni-6给VEGFxPD1靶点加了分，对辉瑞双抗的估值有边际提振。但这个提振反映到实际估值里，需要等到辉瑞2029年自己的数据——在此之前，更多是情绪层面的补充，而不是基本面层面的确定性。 管线里还有Mevrometostat（前列腺，2026）、Elrexfio向多发性骨髓瘤早期线扩展（2026）、KAT6抑制剂2L乳腺癌（2027）、CDK4 1L乳腺癌（2028），以及近期Innovent合作搭建的双载荷平台。这些是2026年以后才会陆续变成数据的故事，当前估值里反映的还是SV主线。 $26的价格在等什么，风险在哪里触发 Q：当前$26.18的股价，市场已经定价了什么？ A：Padcev的稳定增长（Q1同比+40%，mUC再加速叠加MIBC早期放量）大概率已经在价格里了。SV在2L+的成功也有部分定价，但定价的是"正常读出"场景，终点修改带来的审慎折扣还没有充分反映。目标价$30对应的+15%空间，在中性评级框架下，意味着摩根大通认为这个空间还不足以覆盖管线的执行风险。 Q：最近的验证窗口在哪里？ A：最硬的验证节点是2H26——SV 2L+ OS数据读出。数据清晰且达到统计显著性，多头逻辑拿到第一个实质性支撑，同时为2027年1L试验的预期打开空间；如果数据模糊或HR不达标，1L估值预期将系统性下移。2026年还有Mevrometostat和Elrexfio早期线扩展数据，但体量无法与SV相比。 Q：什么情况下当前判断不成立？ A：如果SV在2H26 OS数据未达标，同时默沙东TROP2在1L持续强化，辉瑞肿瘤管线的核心资产就同时面临2L受阻和1L入场门槛抬高的双重压力。这种情景下，$26的价格是否足够便宜，取决于市场对Padcev和非肿瘤管线（呼吸、疼痛）的基础估值怎么计算。辉瑞的股价在过去两年已经从$41以上跌至当前水平，坏消息能否继续定价，要看SV读出前市场愿意给多高的成功概率。扫码获取报告原文 关注华尔街播客 获取华尔街投行最新研究结果，投资机会，每日《华尔街日报》  如需更多资讯，添加微信获取 + wallstreetpodcast #华尔街日报 #摩根大通 #辉瑞 #美股 #医药研发 #肿瘤管线 #ASCO会议 #非小细胞肺癌 #抗体偶联药物 #双特异性抗体 #医药投资 #美股研报 #临床试验 #默沙东 #前列腺癌 #乳腺癌 #生物医药 #投资策略 #华尔街 #全球投资 #药企动态

iStock, Marut Khobtakhob Pfizer showcased multiple late-breakers at the American Society of Clinical Oncology’s annual conference but its biggest data are expected later this year. Pfizer arrived in Chicago this weekend for the American Society of Clinical Oncology’s annual conference fresh off a $10.5 billion deal with China’s Innovent Biologics, as the company seeks to bolster its oncology pipeline. “It is not a big [ASCO] year from the vantage-point of stock-moving data,” Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger told BioSpace . “The focus is looking forward to the Pfizer readouts ahead.” Risinger noted that the company’s most anticipated updates from an investor standpoint are set for later this year. The New York pharma giant showcased data across more than 40 abstracts at ASCO 2026, plus three late-breakers and several oral presentations. All told, the data ranged from striking, long-term results for approved drugs to previews of what’s coming, including some assets out of China. “We want to go big and make impact,” Johanna Bendell, Pfizer’s chief development officer of oncology, told BioSpace prior to the conference. China Pfizer bets up to $10.5B in 12-candidate cancer collab with China’s Innovent Pfizer continues its dealmaking spree by striking a back-heavy partnership with China’s Innovent Biologics to assemble a pipeline of antibody-based therapies for cancer. May 29, 2026 · 2 min read · Tristan Manalac Read more Wins in lung, colorectal and prostate cancer In its late-breaking abstracts, Pfizer presented new data for drugs already in clinic, cementing them as strong treatment options or providing evidence for their use in earlier-stage disease. The company on Friday shared updated data from its Phase 3 CROWN trial , comparing ALK inhibitor Lobrena to its earlier-generation oral kinase inhibitor Xalkori in patients with previously untreated, ALK-positive advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). At seven years, patients taking Lobrena saw an 81% drop in the risk of disease progression or death. These patients had a 55% likelihood of being alive without disease progression, compared to just 3% of those in the control arm. Overall survival (OS) data is not yet available, Bendell said. Pfizer is hoping to see this metric within the next year. “The durability of the benefit is unlike any trial we’ve seen,” Sarah Goldberg, chief of thoracic oncology at Yale Cancer Center, told BioSpace . “The CROWN data have looked good for a long time, but as we get longer-term follow-up, I think it’s more convincing that this should be our choice for first-line treatment.” Meanwhile, Bendell, who previously treated patients with gastrointestinal cancers, is particularly excited about new results from BREAKWATER . The trial evaluates Pfizer’s BRAF inhibitor Braftovi plus Eli Lilly’s Erbitux and the FOLFIRI chemotherapy regimen for previously untreated patients with BRAF V600E-mutant metastatic colorectal cancer, compared to FOLFIRI with or without bevacizumab. FOLFIRI and FOLFOX are common chemo regimens for patients with colorectal cancer, and earlier BREAKWATER data showed strong benefit for Braftovi plus Erbitux and mFOLFOX6. The FDA granted Braftovi full approval in first-line metastatic colorectal cancer in February. In this latest readout from BREAKWATER, the Braftovi/FOLFIRI combo also cut the risk of progression or death, this time by 56%, and PFS nearly doubled to 15.2 months versus 8.3 months in the comparator arm. Risk of death also declined by 44%, according to Pfizer’s Monday press release . “You can choose whichever of the chemotherapy backbones. You’re still going to have a significant impact by bringing Braftovi in for these patients,” Bendell said. Meanwhile, adding Pfizer’s PARP inhibitor Talzenna to the company’s Xtandi resulted in better outcomes for men with HHR-altered metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer, according to results from the Phase 3 TALAPRO-3 trial . The combination resulted in a 52% reduction in risk of radiographic progression or death, compared to placebo plus Xtandi. At three years, some 77% of patients on the combination still had radiographic PFS (rPFS), compared to 56% of those in the control arm. The results from TALAPRO-3 could move the combination earlier into the disease course, before castration resistance, Bendell said. “The earlier you move the therapy, the more impact that you can have for patients.” The results could help support the growth of Talzenna going forward, as Xtandi is soon set to face generic competition, Risinger said, adding that those were very important results. A look ahead—and a patent cliff Elsewhere at ASCO, Pfizer unveiled new data from assets designed to be the future of its oncology business. One such drug is the company’s CDK4 inhibitor atirmociclib, the heir apparent to its blockbuster breast cancer drug Ibrance, which loses patent protection next year. Breast cancer Pfizer’s Ibrance Heir Reduces Risk of Death in Phase 2 Breast Cancer Test Pfizer has a lofty goal for the CDK4 inhibitor atirmociclib, the New York pharma’s answer to Ibrance’s loss of patent protection next year. In 2025, Ibrance led Pfizer’s oncology portfolio with $1.04 billion in sales. March 17, 2026 · 1 min read · Annalee Armstrong Read more The Phase 2 FourLight-2 trial evaluated neoadjuvant atirmociclib plus letrozole vs. letrozole alone among 121 patients with HR+/HER2- breast cancer. Based on Ki-67 biomarker data, the proportion of patients taking atirmociclib who achieved complete cell cycle arrest at two weeks was 88.2% compared to 17.9% in the comparator group. Patients on atirmociclib also had more side effects, with nearly 20% experiencing diarrhea. The efficacy was compelling, but the gastrointestinal toxicity is a key question going forward, Risinger said . Pfizer also put up data in the competitive PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody space, where Summit Therapeutics and its Chinese biopharma partner Akeso made headlines with their candidate ivonescimab. BioNTech and Bristol Myers Squibb also presented solid data for their asset pumitamig. Immuno-oncology ASCO: Summit reached with China lung data but new climb begins to prove global benefit “King Keytruda’s reign continues,” analysts at BMO Capital Markets declared after Chinese data for Summit Therapeutics’ ivonescimab were revealed at the American Society for Clinical Oncology in Chicago. June 1, 2026 · 3 min read · Annalee Armstrong Read more In updated results from a Phase 2 trial of Pfizer’s bispecific PD-1/VEGF antibody SSGJ-707 (PF’4404), the confirmed objective response rate was 75.0% for patients with squamous-cell NSCLC and 63.6% for non-squamous cell NSCLC, with a median PFS of 8.9 months and 12.4 months, respectively. “The data were encouraging, but the jury is still out with respect to which agents will differentiate,” Risinger said. The compound also showed promise in endometrial cancer in a different Phase 2 trial . Among 29 patients with advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer, the confirmed objective response rate was 85.7% at a 5-mg/kg dose and 80.0% at 10 mg/kg. Pfizer paid $1.25 billion upfront to license the bispecific from 3SBio in 2025, and the company has since launched 12 clinical trials in the program and plans to start five more. As for key upcoming data, Risinger pointed to several readouts, including one around the middle of this year for Pfizer’s investigational antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) sigvotatug vedotin (SV) versus docetaxel in second-line NSCLC. Last week, Pfizer amended the primary endpoint to OS only, with the change likely to mildly increase the chance of success, analysts at BMO Capital Markets wrote in a note to investors last Wednesday. PFS will now be a descriptive secondary endpoint, the firm noted. “While such a change reduces our confidence in the robustness of PFS, OS remains the highest importance in NSCLC, making this change rationale for increasing SV’s chances to demonstrate clinically meaningful results,” the analysts wrote. “SV is expected to be a blockbuster for NSCLC,” Risinger said. Also awaited in the second half of 2026 are results from the Phase 3 MEVPRO-1 trial , evaluating the EZH2 inhibitor mevrometostat plus enzalutamide in patients with previously treated metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. Plus, this upcoming weekend, Phase 2 data will be presented for Pfizer’s monthly, long-acting injectable GLP-1 that it acquired from Metsera at the 2026 American Diabetes Association ’s Scientific Sessions, as the company builds out its obesity assets. As Risinger said, “there’s a broad pipeline at Pfizer that is needed to offset the patent cliffs ahead.” .responsive-container { display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; border: 1px solid #ededed; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, Sans-Serif; padding: 20px 20px 10px 20px; } .column-left { flex: 1; max-width: 45%; padding: 20px 20px 10px 20px; } .column-right { flex: 2; padding: 20px 20px 10px 20px; } @media (max-width: 768px) { .column-left, .column-right { max-width: 100%; flex: 100%; padding: 10px 0; } } Subscribe to ClinicaSpace! Clinical trial results, research news, the latest in cancer, cell and gene therapy hbspt.forms.create({ region: "na1", portalId: "4413123", formId: "674f4dc0-7371-4190-86cc-e1afd00b08ea", onFormSubmitted: function($form, data) { window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; window.dataLayer.push({ 'event': 'GTMevent', 'event_name': 'newsletter_sign_up' }); } });